Publications and Acceptances

Peri, G., Rury, D., and Wiltshire, J.C. Forthcoming. “The Economic Impact of Migrants from Hurricane Maria”, The Journal of Human Resources

Working Papers

Minimum Wage Effects and Monopsony Explanations (with Carl McPherson, Michael Reich, and Denis Sosinskiy)

Abstract: We present the first causal analysis of a seven-year run-up of minimum wages to $15. Using a novel stacked county-level synthetic control estimator and data on fast-food restaurants, we find substantial pay growth and no disemployment. Our results hold among lower-wage counties and counties without local minimum wages. Minimum wage increases reduce separation rates and raise wages faster than prices at McDonald’s stores; both findings imply a monopsonistic labor market with declining rents. In the tight post-pandemic labor market, when labor supply becomes more elastic, we find positive employment effects. These become larger and statistically significant after addressing pandemic-response confounds.

Walmart Supercenters and Monopsony Power: How a Large, Low-Wage Employer Impacts Local Labor Markets

Abstract: This paper considers the extent and impact of monopsony power exercised by Walmart Supercenters. I address the issue of potential bias from endogenous store entry, as well as other identification concerns, by adopting a stacked synthetic control approach to estimate average county-level labor market effects of the Walmart Supercenter roll-out across the U.S. Crucially, I construct the pools of synthetic control donor counties from novel observations of counties where Walmart tried to open a Supercenter but was blocked by local efforts. I first show Supercenter entry sharply increased labor market concentration. Supercenters were able to hire large numbers of retail workers with zero increase in average earnings, indicating Walmart had wage-setting power. I then show Supercenter entry caused large declines in overall local employment and earnings, particularly among local goods-producers, indicating Walmart displaced manufacturing demand away from local producers and to its own national and international suppliers. In counties with a Supercenter, subsequent exogenous minimum wage increases led to significant growth in aggregate and retail employment. These results run counter to predictions for competitive labor markets, and indicate Walmart Supercenters gradually accumulated and exercised monopsony power, with negative consequences for workers.

allsynth: (Stacked) Synthetic Control Bias-Correction Utilities for Stata

Abstract: Synthetic control methods are widely-used for estimating counterfactuals and treatment effects of policy interventions. allsynth adds greatly-enhanced functionality to the user-written synth module for Stata, which is widely used by practitioners to implement the ‘‘classic'' synthetic control estimation strategy. allsynth automates implementation of several extensions to the classic approach while retaining the syntax of synth. These include a bias-correction procedure that adjusts for differences in the predictor variable values between a treated unit and its synthetic control donors, as well as extensions of the classic and bias-corrected estimators to environments with many treated units and treatment periods (a ‘‘stacked'' synthetic control estimator) and to in-space placebo treatment estimation for randomization inference. allsynth also provides greater automated graphing capability, and thorough diagnostics to help users with implementation.

Out-of-State Enrollment, Financial Aid and Academic Outcomes: Evidence from Wisconsin (with Natalia Orlova and Derek Rury)

Abstract: Scholars disagree about the effect out-of-state university students have on potential in-state students. Despite paying a premium to attend state universities, researchers argue that out-of-state students may come at a cost to in-state students by negatively affecting academic quality or by crowding out in-state students. To study this relationship, we examine the effect of a 2016 policy at a highly ranked state flagship university that removed the limit on how many out-of-state students it could enroll. We find the policy caused an increase in out-of-state enrollment by around 29 percent and increased tuition revenue collected by the university by 47 percent. We argue that this revenue was used to fund increases in financial aid disbursed at the university, particularly to students from low-income households, indicating that out-of-state students cross-subsidize lower income students. We also fail to find evidence that this increase in out-of-state students had any effect on several measures of academic quality.

Crosswalks from ‘County Groups’ to Counties for the 1970 and 1980 U.S. Decennial Census Metro Samples

Abstract: County of residence is not observed in the public-use 1970 and 1980 Decennial Census data, to preserve respondent confidentiality. Instead, the metro 1% samples delineate ‘county groups’ for each year. This prevents researchers from conducting research with the these Decennial Census data at the level of any time-consistent geographic unit smaller than commuting zones—and that is only possible using probabilistic crosswalks written by other researchers (Autor and Dorn, 2013). I provide and detail new population-based crosswalks which allow researchers to probabilistically distribute individuals to their counties-of-residence, enabling research with these data at the county level. To demonstrate the accuracy of the crosswalks, I compare the results to a variety of county-level data from the Census Bureau.

Selected Works in Progress

Playing with Fire: The Unintended Consequences of Logging Restrictions in the Northern Spotted Owl Habitat (with Natalia Orlova and Derek Rury)

Health Provider Concentration and Medical Debt' (with Alaa Abdelfattah, Sergio Pinto, and Marshall Steinbaum)

The Impact of Walmart’s Growth on the U.S. Social Safety Net

Growing Regional Demand Through Cooperative Competition

Labor Market Power and Non-wage Compensation